The militant group Islamic Army in Iraq posted a statement on the
Internet on Jan. 3 threatening to launch terrorist attacks on U.S.
soil. Although this is the first time in nearly a year that any
credible Islamist militants have directly threatened to carry out
attacks within the United States -- "Azzam the American" aside --
Stratfor believes the group likely is incapable of following up on its
threats. Speeches by Osama bin Laden himself most recently have
focused on threatening those in league with the United States, such as
Saudi Arabia, rather than the United States itself.
The Islamic Army in Iraq emerged in mid-2003 as the insurgency in Iraq
was picking up, making it one of the earliest militant organizations
to appear on the scene. By early spring 2004, myriad Islamist militant
groups and militant leaders, such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had begun
their own campaigns of violence. Sources in the Iraqi government,
however, claim that this is the largest Islamist militant group
currently fighting in Iraq.
The Islamic Army in Iraq has been responsible for a number of
high-profile incidences of violence and terrorism -- most notably the
killing of Italian journalist Enzo Baldoni in August 2002. The group
also abducted two French citizens that same month, holding them
hostage until December, when they were released unharmed. It is blamed
for a number of other kidnappings in Iraq as well, and likely has been
involved in other attacks that have gone unreported; because of the
sheer volume of violence in Iraq, a large percentage of it does not
make it into the media.
Although this group is obviously quite capable of operating
successfully in Iraq -- which makes it dangerous for U.S. military and
civilian personnel working in the country -- that does not mean it is
capable of launching attacks thousands of miles away in the United States.
As Stratfor has said, the ability of any group to carry out a
large-scale attack within the continental United States has been
hindered by increased security efforts domestically and successful
counterterrorism operations overseas. The likelihood now that a group
from halfway around the world would be able to accomplish what al
Qaeda has been unable to accomplish since the Sept. 11 attacks is
slim. Having said that, however, there is an outside possibility that
this threat could serve as a catalyst for action by a jihadist already
inside the United States. An attack by a lone wolf Islamist militant
motivated by the Islamic Army in Iraq's rhetoric, unfortunately, is
difficult to prevent.
Like the threat from native Californian Adam Gadahn, or "Azzam the
American," who released a videotape on the eve of the U.S.
presidential election warning that the streets of America would run
with blood, this Internet-posted statement seems more like
braggadocio. It also appears more of a call to action than a genuine
threat the group intends to back up.
According to its statement, Islamist militants from Iraq "will take
the battle from inside our country to yours" and "will bring woes on
America." The statement goes on to say that "the mujahideen have
prepared big surprises for your sons outside America and a big
surprise for you inside America," and "we will give American civilians
a taste of what civilians in our country go through."
By making such a bold claim, the group likely is attempting to garner
support in Iraq in terms of manpower, money and supplies in an effort
to keep its operation afloat. Furthermore, it is attempting to set
itself apart from its jihadist peers and raise itself to a level of
notoriety that rivals Iraq's resident jihadist celebrity al-Zarqawi --
the last credible militant to directly threaten the United States, in
February 2004. Nothing came of that threat, either.